CFA · Player Analysis · April 2026
Isak
Bjerkebø
IK Sirius · Allsvenskan · LWF · Age 23 · Norwegian
CFA Verdict
BUY
LW_CARRIER · 0.92
9
Goals 2025–26
2454
Minutes
0.29
G/90 adj.
1.61
SA/90 adj.
2.26
PR/90 adj.
54.5%
Drib%
€0.8M
Market Value
2029
Contract
Raw (Allsvenskan)
League-adjusted
Viking projection
Viking target (LW_CARRIER)
Goal Output G/90 & xG/90
Offensive Output SA/90 & PR/90
Pass%, Drib% & Duel%
Defensive Contribution Inter/90
IK Sirius (current)
Possession49.9%
Pass%83.4%
Goals/game2.03
PPDA10.6
Prog. passes/game75
League coeff0.88
Viking FK (dest.)
Possession50.2%
Pass%81.3%
Goals/game2.55
PPDA10.6
Prog. passes/game78
League coeff1.00
Translation Risk
League gap0.88 → 1.00
Style fitHigh
Structural fitHigh
Age23
Contract2029
RiskLOW

Strengths

Bjerkebø leads the LW pool (n=11) on two adjusted metrics: SA/90 (1.61, ranked 1st) and G/90 (0.29, ranked 1st). His 9 goals in 2,454 minutes (G/90 0.33 raw) outpaces underlying xG (0.31), indicating finishing quality above what volume alone explains. Alongside 9 assists, he operates as a complete offensive contributor — not just a scorer. Dribbling success (54.5%) supports a direct carrying style in wide areas, and these numbers hold up in Allsvenskan's wider, deeper defensive blocks.

Structural Upside

Sirius and Viking share near-identical tactical fingerprints: possession ~50%, PPDA 10.6, progressive ball circulation. Bjerkebø already operates in the same transitional cadence Viking demands — receiving the ball in space, driving forward, contributing to combinations. The league step (0.88 → 1.00) is real, but tactical translation risk is minimal. With better midfield supply and higher individual quality around him, realistic upside is 5–10% on SA/90 and sustained scoring rate over a full Eliteserien season.

Concerns

PR/90 adjusted (2.26) ranks 7th in the LW pool of 11 and sits significantly below Viking's target (3.20). This is the primary gap versus Austbø-level output — Bjerkebø does not replicate that progressive carrying volume. DuelPct adjusted (35.9%) sits at 75% of target (48.0%): he depends on structural support to win territory rather than dominating individual battles. In Eliteserien's higher physical intensity, this will be tested early. DribPct adjusted (48.0%) also falls short of target (55.5%).

Recommendation

BUY. Archetype score 0.92 clears the BUY threshold following model revision (April 2026). The decisive change: rate metrics are no longer mechanically downweighted by league coefficient. DuelPct is now evaluated at raw value (40.8%), giving a rawRatio of 0.85 against target — above the 0.75 hardCore floor. The hardCore penalty no longer applies. The offensive profile remains the strongest in the LW pool: SA/90 1st/11, G/90 1st/11. PR/90 adjusted (2.26) remains below Viking target (3.20) — the primary structural gap. DuelPct (40.8%) still sits below target (48.0%) and will be tested at Eliteserien physical intensity. Market value €0.8M and contract through 2029 remain commercially accessible. Re-evaluate if PR/90 trends toward 2.80+ in new data.