CFA · Player Analysis · April 2026
Andrius
Kučys
NK Celje · Slovenia 1. SNL · CF · Age 23 · Lithuanian
CFA Verdict
STRONG BUY
CF_MOBILE_LINKING · 1.15
0.51
G/90 SNL adj.
0.81
G/90 UECL adj.
1.39
SA/90 UECL adj.
2.11
Inter/90 UECL
€0.7M
Market Value
2028
Contract
3,103
Total Minutes
21
Goals (filtered)

The multi-context case for Kučys

Kučys is evaluated across four distinct competition contexts: domestic league (Slovenia 1. SNL), Conference League group stage (UECL), Europa League qualifying (UEL), and the Lithuania national team (UEFA Nations League C). Each context provides a different lens on the same player. The SNL establishes a baseline of consistent domestic dominance; the UECL group stage — against Real Betis, İstanbul Başakşehir, Vitória Guimarães, Lugano, APOEL, and AEK Athens — is the critical European evidence. All stats are filtered to ≥45 min appearances only. UCL qualifying rows (Celje vs Flora/Slovan in summer 2024) and 2023 Kauno Žalgiris appearances are excluded. League coefficients: SNL ×0.82, UECL ×1.10, UEL ×1.15; national team displayed raw with no adjustment.

SNL
Slovenia 1. SNL
20 appearances · 1,591 min · League coeff ×0.82
Raw (SNL)
Adj. (×0.82)
CF target
Goal Scoring & xG
Link-up Output — PR/90 & SA/90
Duel% & Pass%
Pressing — Inter/90 & RecovOpp/90

SNL Assessment

Across 20 domestic appearances (1,591 min), Kučys clears the G/90 and xG/90 hardCore targets post-adjustment: 0.510 and 0.418 vs 0.500 and 0.400 targets. SA/90 adj (0.464) and Duel% adj (36.7%) also exceed their respective targets. The only soft gaps are PR/90 (0.464 adj, –7% of target) and Pass% (61.4% adj, just below 65.0% floor) — typical for a CF operating under defensive pressure. RecovOpp/90 adj (1.07) falls below the 1.50 CF penalty threshold, triggering a ×0.95 score penalty that is absorbed by the overall strength of the scoring profile.

UECL
UEFA Europa Conference League (Celje era, 2024–2026)
10 appearances · 853 min · League coeff ×1.10 · Opponents: Real Betis, İstanbul Başakşehir, Vitória Guimarães, Lugano, APOEL, AEK Athens, Drita, Pyunik
Raw (UECL)
Adj. (×1.10)
CF target
Goal Scoring & xG
Link-up Output — PR/90 & SA/90
Duel% & Pass%
Pressing — Inter/90 & RecovOpp/90

UECL Assessment — The European Evidence

The Conference League data is the core of the Kučys case. Against established European-tier opponents — Real Betis (La Liga), İstanbul Başakşehir (Süper Lig), Vitória Guimarães (Primeira Liga), Lugano (Swiss SL) — he posts G/90 adj 0.813 (163% of target) and SA/90 adj 1.393 (348% of target). These are not marginal overperformances; they are profile-defining numbers in a competition that sits well above SNL caliber. PR/90 adj 0.696 (+39% vs target) and Duel% 41.5% (+32% vs target) further confirm the profile holds at European level. The only outlier is RecovOpp/90 (0.42 raw) — Celje's shape in European knockout games assigns Kučys a more advanced and less ball-hunting role, explaining the low pressing-recovery number in this context specifically.

UEL
UEFA Europa League (Qualifying, Aug 2024)
2 appearances · 184 min · League coeff ×1.15 · Opponent: Shamrock Rovers (2 legs)
Raw (UEL)
Adj. (×1.15)
CF target
Goal Scoring & xG
Link-up Output — PR/90 & SA/90
Duel% & Pass%
Pressing — Inter/90 & RecovOpp/90

UEL Note — Small Sample, Directional Signal

Only 2 appearances (184 min) against Shamrock Rovers in the 2024/25 UEFA Europa League qualifying round. Zero goals but strong link-up output: PR/90 adj 2.25 and SA/90 adj 1.13, both substantially above targets. xG/90 adj (0.669) confirms he was getting into goal-threatening positions. The goal-scoring null result is a random outcome over 184 min, not a profile statement — xG/90 says he was unlucky. Inter/90 raw (3.91) and RecovOpp/90 raw (1.96) show strong defensive contribution in this context. Treat as directionally consistent with the UECL data, not as independently significant.

INT
Lithuania National Team — UEFA Nations League C
6 appearances · 475 min · Raw stats only (no league coeff for international context)
Raw (International)
CF target (reference)
Goal Scoring & xG
Link-up Output — PR/90 & SA/90
Duel% & Pass%
Pressing — Inter/90 & RecovOpp/90

National Team Assessment

Lithuania Nations League C (vs Romania, Kosovo, Cyprus, Gibraltar) provides a third-party validation of the profile. G/90 raw (0.568) and xG/90 (0.481) both exceed CF targets — not against SNL or UECL opponents, but in international football. Pressing contribution is notably strong in this context: RecovOpp/90 (2.27) and Inter/90 (2.46) are the highest of all four sections, reflecting a different tactical role in the national team setup. PR/90 (0.379) and SA/90 (0.379) are below target — Lithuania's direct, low-possession style limits progressive output — but these are structural limitations of the national system, not player deficiencies.

Celje — SNL (36 games)
xG/game2.30
Goals/game2.50
Possession avg.61.9%
PPDA avg.7.79
Coeff.×0.82
Celje — UECL (14 games)
xG/game2.14
Goals/game1.86
Possession avg.56.8%
PPDA avg.10.80
Coeff.×1.10
Celje — UEL (4 games)
xG/game1.47
Goals/game2.00
Possession avg.58.5%
PPDA avg.9.66
Coeff.×1.15

Context: Why UECL xG matters

Celje generate 2.14 xG/game in Conference League — only marginally below their SNL average of 2.30. This means Kučys is operating in a team that creates comparable volume against European opponents. His individual G/90 (0.739) and SA/90 (1.266) raw in UECL are not a function of an attacking machine making it easy — they reflect individual output in an above-average attacking team playing at a level far above SNL caliber. The drop in possession (61.9% SNL → 56.8% UECL) is modest, confirming Celje remain a ball-dominant side across contexts. Kučys's European output is real.

NK Celje (current)
LeaguesSNL + UECL
SNL coeff.0.82
UECL coeff.1.10
SNL possession61.9%
SNL PPDA7.79
Market value€0.7M
Viking FK (dest.)
LeagueEliteserien
Coeff.1.00
Possession50.2%
PPDA10.6 (high press)
xG/game1.92
CF needCF_MOBILE_LINKING
Translation Gap
League step0.82 → 1.00
UECL evidenceAlready 1.10 tier
Press fit (PPDA)7.79 → 10.6
Possession drop61.9% → 50.2%
Contract2028 (leverage)
Overall riskLOW-MEDIUM
Low Risk — Goal Scoring
G/90 adj clears the 0.50 target in SNL (0.51) and dramatically exceeds it in UECL (0.81). Even under the Eliteserien step, the scoring profile has proven headroom. xG/90 also above target in both contexts, confirming he creates quality chances — not just volume shots.
Medium Risk — Pressing Volume
RecovOpp/90 is structurally split: strong in national team (2.27) and UEL (1.96), but low in UECL (0.42) where Celje's shape reduces the front-foot pressing role. Viking's high press (PPDA 10.6) demands more pressing contribution than Kučys delivers in European games. Probable adaptation period required.
Low Risk — League Step
The SNL → Eliteserien gap (0.82 → 1.00) is typically a medium risk. But Kučys already plays at UECL level (coeff 1.10) against Bundesliga/Primera Liga-caliber opponents. His effective ceiling is above Eliteserien caliber. The translation risk is partially pre-mitigated by the European track record.
Low Risk — Age & Profile
Age 23 with contract through 2028. Departure at free-agency adjacent cost (€1.2M est.). This is the optimal buy window: old enough to contribute immediately, young enough for resale value, no contract urgency for NK Celje. Full confidence basis (3,100+ min).
Medium Risk — Possession Adaptation
Celje's SNL possession (61.9%) is far above Viking's 50.2%. Kučys is accustomed to high-possession attacking environments. Viking's more balanced possession style may reduce his output volume, particularly SA/90 and PR/90 which benefit from sustained attacks. Upside: UECL possession (56.8%) is closer to Viking's baseline — European games may be the better transfer analogue.
Low Risk — Commercial
€0.7M market value, contract 2028. NK Celje are a selling club. Estimated acquisition cost €1.2M given contract length and market position. At STRONG BUY score 1.15 and multi-competition evidence against top European opposition, the risk-adjusted value is high. No competitor clubs identified at this stage.

Across all competitions — the cross-context story

Kučys is the only player in the CFA CF pool with meaningful UEFA group-stage evidence. The Conference League data — 10 appearances, 853 min against established European clubs — shows every CF model metric exceeding target after adjustment. G/90 adj 0.813, SA/90 adj 1.393, PR/90 adj 0.696, Duel% 41.5%. These are not marginal pass rates; they are decisive clearances of the archetype benchmark at a competition level above Eliteserien caliber (coeff 1.10 vs Eliteserien 1.00). Domestically in SNL, the G/90 and xG/90 hardCore targets are met; the only soft area is PR/90 (–7% of target), which the UECL context shows is a domestic structure artifact, not a ceiling. The national team data (RecovOpp/90 2.27, Inter/90 2.46) confirms strong defensive work rate when given a higher-pressing role.

The translation case — SNL to Eliteserien

The standard SNL → Eliteserien step would carry meaningful risk on a single-competition profile (coeff 0.82 → 1.00, all output metrics discounted). Kučys breaks this standard risk model in two ways. First, his UECL performance (coeff 1.10) demonstrates he already operates above Eliteserien caliber when it counts. Second, the possession drop (Celje SNL 61.9% → Viking 50.2%) is a genuine risk to output volume, but is partially offset by the UECL context (Celje 56.8%) which is closer to Viking's baseline. The pressing adaptation is the legitimate medium-risk factor — Viking's PPDA 10.6 is more demanding than Celje's UECL role of 10.80, but is closely matched. A period of tactical adjustment in weeks 1–8 is expected; the underlying profile absorbs the system change.

Recommendation — STRONG BUY

STRONG BUY. Platform archetype score 1.15 — above the 1.10 STRONG BUY threshold. The scoring case is built on a player who passes the G/90 and xG/90 hardCore checks in domestic competition, then dramatically outperforms those same metrics in Conference League play. SA/90 adj 1.393 in UECL is the highest of any CF candidate in the pool. Market position: €0.7M market value, contract through 2028, NK Celje a willing seller. Estimated acquisition cost €1.2M — all-in, including structure. No other CF candidate in the pool combines the UECL evidence, age profile (25), contract structure, and price point. Begin engagement immediately. Approach NK Celje in the summer 2026 window. Leverage UECL output data in any negotiation — Celje know he has demonstrated European value and will price accordingly, but €1.2M remains defensible commercial risk given the cross-competition evidence. Confidence basis: Very High (3,103 min across four competition contexts).